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Trump's "Tariff Sketch" — Not Haphazard, but Strategic Moves

Donald Trump’s push for increased tariffs (2024-25 rhetoric and actions), particularly on China, Mexico, EU, and sometimes India, is often misunderstood as impulsive. In reality, it aligns with his “America First” doctrine, which has three core objectives:

a) Re-industrializing America

Tariffs are a tool to force supply chains to shift back to the USA.

China-centric manufacturing is being targeted to reduce US dependency.

Sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicles, steel, rare earths, etc., are being shielded for domestic rebuilding.

b) Rewriting Global Trade Norms

Trump’s tariffs are not just economic weapons but also geopolitical levers to challenge WTO-era globalization rules.

His intent is to re-negotiate trade deals bilaterally (US–Country) rather than via multilateral frameworks (like WTO), which he sees as unfair to the US.

c) 2024-2025 Election Strategy

Tariffs energize Rust Belt voters (industrial workers who suffered under globalization).

It paints an image of “Strong Leadership” in foreign economic policy, fitting Trump’s populist image.

2. Deeper Geopolitical & Economic Implications

a) De-coupling from China is Expensive, but Strategic

It's a slow, painful economic surgery to shift away from China.

However, for US security and tech supremacy (especially in AI, semiconductors, EVs), this decoupling is considered a strategic necessity.

b) Forcing Allies into “Friend-shoring”

Tariffs aren’t just for China; they’re pressure tools to force US allies (like EU, Japan, Mexico, ASEAN) to choose sides.

Essentially, “If you don’t align with us against China, you will pay tariffs too.”

3. India’s Silent Observation (The Mischievous Smile)

India’s silence is not indifference. It’s calculated patience. Here’s why:

a) China-US Tariff War is India’s Window

Every factory leaving China is a potential investment for India.

India is quietly working on PLI schemes (Production Linked Incentives) to attract companies fleeing China.

While Vietnam, Mexico, and others are also benefitting, India’s large domestic market gives it an edge.

b) India Wants Tariff Walls on China, but Not on Itself

India knows Trump's tariffs on China help level the playing field.

But India doesn’t want to be the next target of US tariffs.

Hence, India maintains strategic silence, quietly negotiating in backchannels, avoiding public friction.

c) Geopolitical Leverage

India’s importance in the Indo-Pacific strategy (as a counter to China) means the US will tolerate some of India’s protectionist policies.

India is using this leverage to stay non-aligned yet opportunistic.

4. What’s Coming Next?

If Trump (or any futureUS president) continues aggressive tariffs, global trade will be re-aligned into blocks: US-centric, China-centric, and Non-Aligned (India’s preferred spot).

India’s role will grow as a "swing state" in global manufacturing and diplomacy.

In Short:

Trump's tariffs are a deliberate, calculated economic weapon to re-engineer global trade.

India's smile reflects its strategic patience — letting US-China clash while quietly positioning itself as a beneficiary without getting entangled overtly.

Does the US Want to Stop India's Rise? — Partially True

US and India

The US has a dual approach towards India:

a) Strategic Ally against China (Wants India’s Rise)

The US needs India as a geopolitical counterbalance to China, especially in the Indo-Pacific.

Militarily, diplomatically, and as a large market, India is crucial for the US "China Containment" strategy.

b) Economic Competitor (Cautious of India’s Industrial Rise)

While the US prefers India over China, it doesn’t want India to become too independent economically to the point where it challenges US corporations globally.

The US prefers India as a junior partner in supply chains, not as a fully independent economic bloc.

Technology control (semiconductors, AI, defense tech) is where the US wants to retain supremacy.

c) So, the US Policy is Not "Stop India" but "Manage India's Rise"

The US doesn’t want India to become a fully sovereign economic pole like China, but it doesn’t want India to remain weak either.

The strategy is to “integrate India into US-led supply chains” rather than allow India to become the core of a non-Western bloc.

3. BRICS & De-Dollarization — Absolutely Correct (But Subtle and Long-Term)

De-dollarization is a long-term strategic goal of BRICS (especially driven by China and Russia).India, however, has a more nuanced position:

India supports multi-currency trade settlements (using Rupee, Yuan, Ruble) to reduce dollar dependency.

But India is careful not to alienate the West completely, as it still needs technology and investments from Western economies.