Can BJPs presence be felt in 2029?

 BJP, Minorities, and Electoral Politics in Tamil Nadu & Kerala

1. Why Communism Failed in India but Succeeded in Russia, China, and (Briefly) Cuba

- India's diverse caste, religion, language, and regional identities diffused class-based revolutionary

solidarity.

- A strong democratic movement (Gandhi, Nehru) absorbed popular discontent via peaceful and

electoral means.

- Post-1991 economic reforms created an aspirational middle class resistant to class-war politics.

- China's communism succeeded due to a homogenous, feudal agrarian society, violent revolution,

and totalitarian control.

- Cuba's communism failed due to economic isolation, overdependence on the USSR, and refusal to

reform.

- Russia's communism rose due to war, economic collapse, weak middle class, and ruthless

Bolshevik suppression - and fell when a new middle class demanded consumerism and freedoms.

2. BJP's Struggles and Rise Since 2014

- Historically viewed as a north Indian, upper-caste, Hindu nationalist party with limited pan-India

appeal.

- 2014: Modi's leadership, anti-Congress sentiment, nationalist rhetoric, and welfare politics fueled a

dramatic rise.

- Expanded base among OBCs, Dalits, and women through welfare schemes and caste alliances.

- Leveraged national security issues (surgical strikes, Balakot) to reinforce Hindu-majority

nationalism.

- Opposition fragmentation and Congress's leadership crisis helped consolidate BJP's dominance.

3. BJP's Electoral Coalition

Upper Castes - High support, driven by traditional Hindutva and nationalism.

OBCs - Rising support via welfare and Modi's OBC identity.

Dalits - Moderate support, drawn by welfare and symbolic outreach.

Hindus overall - Dominant, through Hindutva, nationalism, and welfare.